The Global Trade War Is Coming

The issue of global trade is big news right now. While this isn’t the most scintillating subject to think on, it is important. The truth is, beneath all the dull riffs about deficits, taxes and tariffs lie the seeds of World War  iii .

During his 2016 election campaign, Donald Trump talked a lot about reducing America’s trade deficit and promoting U.S. manufacturing. One of his campaign slogans was “Buy American, hire American.” More recently, Mr. Trump announced that America would soon put a tariff on steel and aluminum imported from China. On Saturday he hinted that he was prepared to tax vehicles imported from Europe.

If the E.U. wants to further increase their already massive tariffs and barriers on U.S. companies doing business there, we will simply apply a Tax on their Cars which freely pour into the U.S. They make it impossible for our cars (and more) to sell there. Big trade imbalance!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 3, 2018

These remarks infuriated China, Germany and most of the industrialized world, and triggered countless articles about a massive global recession  and inevitable global “trade war.” If you’re interested, this article  on a global trade war by Peter Zeihan is exceptional, and very, very sobering.

Why the international fury? The reason is, America has the world’s largest economy and an insatiable appetite for material goodies from all over the planet. Americans’ exceptional love of things—bmws from Germany, clothes made in India, gadgets from China—keeps shops, factories and plants (and entire national economies) humming. If America reduces imports (which a tariff is designed to do), the national economies dependent on the U.S. market will suffer.

The nation to pay close attention to here is Germany. Germany’s economy is export driven; in fact, exports account for nearly 50 percent of Germany’s gross domestic product. (By comparison, exports account for less than 12 percent of America’s gdp.) America is Germany’s largest export market and an essential destination for German goods. In 2016, almost 10 percent of Germany’s total exports went to the U.S. Germany’s economy is booming right now, thanks in large part to America’s desire for German goods.

What happens if America reduces imports from Germany? Basically, Germany’s economy will shrink significantly; this could precipitate a social and political crisis (it wouldn’t take much—Germany is already on the brink of political and social crisis). Finally, an acute political crisis will likely facilitate the emergence of the prophesied German “strongman.”

As it happens, just yesterday we published a short video addressing this exact subject.

Three years ago, in a 2015 Key of David program, Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry warned that a “financial crisis in Europe … is going to bring a strongman on the scene” in Europe. The title of that program is “The America-Europe Financial Crisis.” In the program, Mr. Flurry emphasized Germany’s dependence on the U.S. economy and warned what would happen in Germany and Europe if America’s economy collapsed.

Both history and Bible prophecy tell us what can happen when Germany experiences extreme economic trial!

To learn more about this important subject and the enormous prophetic ramifications of the looming trade war, you can read my article “Trade Wars Have Begun ,” from the April 2017 Philadelphia Trumpet. ▪